I agree with lwt. There is always going to be a small minority that will awaken. Of those numbers, some will walk away and others will hang around for various reasons with family being the #1.
BF - You may be transferring your awarness of the problems with the org to the average person in the congregation. I have a tendancy to do that as well because I can't see how anyone could possibly NOT see the issues. But, then I remember when I was a true believer not all that long ago.
Did I get any smarter? No, just decided to honestly question a few things which lead to a very quick conclusion that not only are there serious problems with the WTS, they've never been God channel.
I do think that the average JW is much different than the average JW of 20 years ago. The generation change in 95 killed whatever urgency there was in the movement. It took a while to bear fruit, but the apathy has certainly set in now.
Now, if you want to talk about the teenage to young adult population - I think we're seeing a different story. They're the ones that are leaving in droves either on their own or being df'ed. And if the WTS doesn't do something to stem that tide, they'll begin to see numbers decrease as their loyal ones die off.